A Look Ahead: The Impact of Term Limits on North Dakota’s Legislature—2026, 2028, 2030 and Beyond

To:                   All Clients

From:               GA Group, PC

Date:                September 9, 2025

Introduction

As North Dakota approaches the 2026 legislative cycle, the state stands on the brink of a new era shaped by the implementation—and possible revision—of legislative term limits. At next June’s primary election, voters will play a central role in determining how this new chapter in state governance unfolds.

In November 2022, voters approved initiated Constitutional Measure 1 with over 63% support, amending the state constitution to impose term limits on state legislators and the governor. Specifically, it restricts individuals to serving eight years in the House and eight years in the Senate, with the provision that service prior to the effective date (January 1, 2023) does not count toward these limits. The measure also includes a clause prohibiting the Legislature from proposing amendments to alter or repeal these term limits.

SCR 4008

Despite this prohibition, the North Dakota Legislature in 2025 approved Senate Concurrent Resolution 4008, sponsored by Senator Mike Dwyer, aiming to modify the existing term limits. The proposed constitutional amendment would allow legislators to serve four complete four-year terms (totaling 16 years) in the Legislature, regardless of chamber, and would remove the constitutional prohibition against legislative changes to term limits. It also allows that partial terms would not count toward the 16.

This measure is slated for the November 2026 ballot. Supporters of 2022’s Measure 1 oppose these changes and suggest it demands a legal challenge. Many voters may be left wondering why term limits are back on the ballot so soon after they were just approved. Without a clear, well-funded campaign to explain it, SCR 4008 risks being perceived as political insider maneuvering—understood only by elected officials and the politically engaged.

Regardless of this measure’s outcome, the effects of Article XV’s legislative term limits will begin to take shape before voters cast a ballot. Our team analyzed upcoming election cycles in relation to North Dakota’s current legislative class to anticipate patterns of turnover and emerging trends in the state’s evolving political landscape.

2026 Election Cycle

Odd-Numbered Districts

For the class of legislators elected in November 2022 from odd-numbered districts, the eight-year clock started ticking on January 1, 2023, as they prepared for their first legislative session. Those running for re-election in November 2026 will seek a second and final term in their current chamber. Come 2030, they will have to retire or run for the opposing chamber, potentially pitting two or more House members against one another in a race for a single Senate seat, dependent on redistricting outcomes.

In 2026, 72 odd-numbered district legislative seats are on the ballot, including 61 Republican incumbent seats and 11 Democrat incumbent seats. Early signs indicate that most incumbents plan to seek re-election. Past election results, incumbents’ visibility in their communities, and their fundraising strength all suggest that most are well-positioned to retain their seats—even in a presidential midterm year—indicating minimal turnover this cycle. While many anticipate primaries from far-right candidates, as shown by the 2024 election cycle, historically the well-funded incumbents have prevailed.

Map Changes

North Dakota’s Districts 9 and 15 are at the center of a high-stakes legal battle over voting rights and redistricting. In 2022, the Spirit Lake Tribe, the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa, and several Native voters challenged the state’s legislative map under the Voting Rights Act, arguing that the new districts diluted Native American voting strength. A federal district court agreed in 2024, ruling that the state’s 2021 map was unlawful and imposing a remedial map drawn with tribal input. Under this revised map, Native communities gained stronger representation, with three Native legislators elected in District 9 during the 2024 cycle.

The State of North Dakota appealed, and in May 2025, the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that private individuals and tribes cannot bring Section 2 Voting Rights Act claims through federal civil rights law—reinstating the state’s original 2021 map.  That meant changes in district residency for some legislators including Rep. Collette Brown, a freshman Democrat from District 9 who now resides in District 15, and Rep. Donna Henderson and Sen. Kent Weston, both Republicans from District 15, now in District 9. Weston would have to square off against Senator Richard Marcellais, who just returned in 2025 after defeating Senator Judy Estenson under the temporary maps, leaving the District 15 Senate seat open.

However, the plaintiffs sought emergency relief, and most recently in July 2025 the U.S. Supreme Court issued a stay, blocking the Eighth Circuit’s ruling from taking effect. For now, the tribal-backed remedial map remains in place while the case continues on appeal, preserving Native representation in Districts 9 and 15. Regardless of the outcome, these two districts’ candidates will face elections in three consecutive cycles: 2022, 2024, and 2026.

Retirements & Resignations

The legislature lost several pragmatic lawmakers this year, due in part to the sudden and tragic deaths of Rep. Josh Christy (Republican, District 27, South Fargo) and Rep. Cynthia Schreiber-Beck (Republican, District 25, Wahpeton). While Christy’s seat was filled by Rep. T.J. Brown for the second half of session, District 25’s local Republican Party just selected former Rep. Kathy Skroch to fill Rep. Schreiber-Beck’s term at the beginning of September. Rep. Jeremy Olson also resigned at the close of session and District 26 GOP party officials appointed former Representative Kelby Timmons to his seat.

In August, Representative Emily O’Brien, an appropriator from Grand Forks, announced she would leave the House to become Deputy Director of the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS). District 42 Republicans will appoint her successor to serve until 2028.

Each new appointment has subtly shifted the political balance, as every member to date has demonstrated a right-of-center inclination through both voting records and floor remarks. Taken together, these additions together with primary election surprises could meaningfully influence upcoming leadership contests and alter the balance of power within the House in particular.

Lastly, speculation about additional retirements is growing, with names such as Sen. Dean Rummel of Dickinson, Rep. Jorin Johnson of Fargo, and longtime Senate Leader Kathy Hogan of Fargo circulating in political circles. Observers expect more formal announcements in the coming fall months or in the opening weeks of 2026, just ahead of the nominating conventions. In all, a roughly 13-20% turnover of legislators is anticipated this cycle.

2028 Election Cycle

Even-Numbered Districts

Incumbent legislators elected in 2020 became subject to term limits in January, 2023, meaning the last two years of their term counted toward the eight-year term limits under Measure 1. If they ran again in 2024 and won, they’ll have served six years by their next election in 2028. Because the 2028 election would lead to a new four-year term extending beyond the eight-year limit, they are ineligible to run for re-election to the same seat in 2028.  Unfortunately, these legislators only get six years of the eight-year limit in their current chamber (unless the constitutional amendment on the 2026 ballot is approved by voters). They may, however, opt to run for the other chamber.

Of the 76 legislators elected in 2024, six are entangled in the redistricting map debacle and have to run again, so we will not address those until the outcomes of the next election. 

From the 70 remaining incumbents, 22 can seek the same seat for a full four-year term—specifically 8 Senators and 15 House members. These were new legislators elected in 2024 whose clock of service started ticking in January 2025.

Thirty-three House members, 35% of the chamber’s 94 members, cannot run for the House again, and must decide whether to seek a Senate seat in 2028. In ten districts, both House members are termed out. Should both Representatives seek the lone Senate seat in their district, this will make for an interesting primary season among incumbents. Some House lawmakers are already discussing who will step aside and retire, paving the way for the other, to avoid infighting. However, in today’s political climate—where incumbency is often viewed with suspicion and some conservatives are criticized for not being “MAGA enough”—pragmatic incumbents may find little success trying to negotiate their way out of a primary challenge against one another. It may prove futile as hardline challengers from the far right show no signs of easing their pressure on sitting lawmakers.

Fifteen Senators, or 32% of the Senate’s 47 members, will also be limited by six years in their current seat and must run for the House of Representatives in order to serve additional time in the legislature. Political discourse often reflects the Senate’s self-perception as the “upper chamber,” which might initially dissuade Senators from seeking House seats. However, with term limits now prompting legislators to switch chambers to extend their service, it remains to be seen whether institutional prestige—or pride in being a member of the House, exclusively—will outweigh the practical desire to stay in office.

In total, these term limits affect at least 48 legislators in 2028 (not including impacts to incumbents in districts 9 and 15), representing 34% of the Legislature’s 141 seats.

2030 and Beyond

The last redistricting process, based on the 2020 Census data, was completed in 2021. The newly drawn legislative maps were first implemented in the 2022 elections, affecting all odd-numbered districts, and a small number of even-numbered districts that election—and every even-numbered district in 2024 and beyond.  

The census and redistricting process will again occur in 2030-2031, resulting in new maps for the 2032 elections. This means the 2030 election will allow odd-numbered districts to remain untouched, while new maps will shuffle mainly even-numbered districts in 2032.

While even-numbered district members will term out in 2028, members from odd-numbered districts who were first elected in 2022 and re-elected in 2026 will reach their term limit by 2030, making them ineligible to run again in their current chamber. Now it will be on them to choose between retiring or running for a seat in the opposite chamber. If every single incumbent retained their seat in 2026, this could affect up to 72 legislative seats, or 51% of the legislature, on the 2030 ballot. However, due to expected retirements, midterm appointments, and other events before the 2026 election, the number of legislators who actually term out of their current chamber in 2030 may be slightly lower—still representing nearly half of the entire legislature.

Conclusion

In 2032, the ifs and buts restrict our predictions of turnover percentages in both chambers. The first major change in 2028, whereby a large a swath of members must seek another chamber or retire will set the tone for future cycles—as leadership is forced to face the same decision, members with seniority in one chamber are assessed by another chamber’s house rules, and new district maps take effect once again. We can forecast growing turnover in the next few years—from nearly 20% to one-third to nearly one-half (or more) of the legislative body. Using the term “turnover,” we’ll also include the switching of chambers—as Representatives become Senators and Senators become Representatives—until this practice becomes the norm. Beyond 2030, however, all bets are off.

Stay tuned as we keep a close eye on North Dakota’s 2026 election cycle, incumbent announcements, new candidates, gubernatorial endorsements, PAC spending, and the impacts of ballot measures on the campaign cycle.